Defence Logistics, Sustainment & Global Supply Chain Contracting
The industry — Management consulting services
Base industry report for 54161 →- Establishments · CanadaA
- 16,881
- Under 10 employeesA
- 91%
- Establishments · USA
- 178,359
- Employment · USA
- 1,367,966
- Payroll · USA
- $145.8B
Of 16,881 Canadian establishments with employees, 91% have fewer than ten — an industry of very small operators.
Entry signal — what decides who wins here
Execution decidesThe hurdles here are ones a better operator clears. That is not a promise of success — it is the absence of a structural reason you cannot win.
Get to the buyer. The product is reachable and the need is real; the channel is owned by someone else, and a route to it — a partner, a reseller, a trade relationship, a book of clients bought outright — is what has to be built.
Measured, not forecast: the share of US establishments opening in one year that were still active later. It counts good operators and bad ones together, which is exactly why it is the honest answer to “what are the odds”. It is for the whole sector rather than this market, and the ten-year figure comes from an older cohort because no younger one has reached ten years.
This is not a probability of success, and it is not a verdict on you. No survival probability is published per market, and inventing one would be worse than saying so. What the bar reads is how much of the outcome sits inside an operator's control: green means the hurdles are ones a better operator clears, red means the binding constraint is capital, an asset or a permission rather than execution. Someone arriving with an advantage this screen did not assume can win a market shown in red.
Companies named in this market · 9
The binding constraint — distribution
The money is real and it is not shrinking. The Defense Logistics Agency alone obligated $55.9B in contracts in FY2025 [A], and the Army's LOGCAP V vehicle has carried $12.5B of task orders since 2019 [A]. But this work is never sold in an open market. It reaches a contractor only through a contract vehicle the contractor already holds, and those vehicles are awarded on past performance at the same scale. LOGCAP V went to exactly four companies in April 2019: KBR, V2X, Fluor and the Amentum–Parsons joint venture. Two of them, KBR and V2X, hold 91% of the obligated dollars [A]. The follow-on goes the other way for a newcomer. The Army's July 2026 notices say LOGCAP VI will merge LOGCAP, Army Pre-Positioned Stock and EAGLE into one global MATOC [A], which makes the next door larger and fewer firms can fit through it. The margins do not pay for the wait either. On filed results, V2X earned a 4.3% operating margin and Fluor's Mission Solutions segment 3.5% in 2025 [A]. The primes are also consolidating: PAE and DynCorp are now Amentum, and Vectrus and Vertex are now V2X. That leaves fewer large buyers of subcontract work. The one opening is the LOGCAP VI Small Business Suite. Under it, a small business would own the steady-state work at Army logistics readiness centres, and a large prime would be activated only on a formal mobilisation [A]. That opening is for small firms that already have readiness-centre past performance, not for a new company. A new entrant would also need a facility clearance, an auditable cost system and CMMC certification before it could bid. Distribution decides it: the buyer can be reached only through vehicles an entrant cannot hold.
The buyer is national: the U.S. Army, DLA and allied ministries. The work is done worldwide, and LOGCAP V's task orders run from Kuwait and Iraq to INDOPACOM. Firms compete one vehicle at a time. Only holders of that vehicle can bid for its orders, so the real market is the handful of awardees on each vehicle, not every logistics firm.
Who you would be competing with
The operators already at scale here, and whoever is buying these businesses. In most of these industries the competition an entrant meets is local, so this is who sets the terms rather than a list of everyone in the trade.
Financials & market size — sourced
Figures that came from a filing, a results release or reputable reporting, each carrying its evidence tier.
Market size, derived
Built from the competitor set upward rather than quoted from a forecast. Published TAMs in these categories are frequently reverse-engineered from each other, so any published figure is checked against the vendor arithmetic rather than trusted on its own.
Disclosed revenue from 4 of 9 named vendors. The market is at least this large.
No vendor has both a disclosed revenue and a published share.
Only a revenue floor is known — the true market is larger by whatever the undisclosed vendors earn.
Competitor set · 9 named · 4 disclose revenue
| Name | Revenue | Share | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amentum HoldingsNYSE: AMTMA | $14.4B | — | FY2025 revenue, year ended 3 Oct 2025 (10-K filed 25 Nov 2025); GES segment $8.850B |
| KBRNYSE: KBRA | $5.6B | — | Mission Technology Solutions segment revenue, fiscal year ended 2 Jan 2026; company total $7.786B |
| V2XNYSE: VVXA | $4.5B | — | 2025 revenue (10-K filed 23 Feb 2026) |
| FluorNYSE: FLRA | $2.7B | — | Mission Solutions segment revenue, 2025; LOGCAP V holder through Fluor Intercontinental |
| ParsonsNYSE: PSNA | not disclosed | — | Partner in Amentum Parsons Logistics Services LLC, the fourth LOGCAP V holder ($0.64B obligated). Parsons' own figures were not opened for this record. |
| Atlantic Diving Supply (ADS)A | not disclosed | — | Virginia Beach. The second-largest DLA contract recipient in FY2025 at $5.61B obligated (USAspending). Obligations are not revenue, and ADS publishes no revenue. |
| SupplyCoreA | not disclosed | — | Rockford, Illinois. $0.80B of DLA obligations in FY2025; MRO Prime Vendor II orders December 2025 and June 2026 (USAspending). |
| ASRC FederalA | not disclosed | — | ASRC Federal Facilities Logistics: $0.75B of DLA obligations in FY2025; MRO Prime Vendor II orders December 2025 and June 2026 (USAspending). |
| Noble Supply & LogisticsA | not disclosed | — | $0.90B of DLA obligations in FY2025 (USAspending). Ownership not verified for this record. |
Evidence
Evidence. Company figures come from each company's latest filing on EDGAR (data.sec.gov / Archives). Amentum: FY2025 10-K filed 25 Nov 2025 and 10-Q for the quarter to 3 July 2026. Its FY2026 10-K was not yet filed on 21 Oct 2026. KBR: 10-K for the year ended 2 Jan 2026 and Q2 2026 10-Q. V2X: 2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q. Fluor: 2025 10-K. Segment figures were read from the segment tables, not the headline bullets [A]. Amentum's GES Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP figure the company reports. LOGCAP V holders and obligations come from USAspending's IDV records W52P1J19D0044–47 and their child-award totals. These are obligations, not revenue, read 21 Oct 2026 [A]. DLA totals and top recipients come from USAspending's FY2025 contract obligations; obligations are not revenue [A]. The LOGCAP VI structure comes from the two ACC-Rock Island notices on SAM.gov (HTRO Matrix RFI, 24 July 2026; Small Business Suite RFI PANROC-P-0000-025256) [A]. A December 2025 trade article gives an $82B ceiling and a February 2027 award date; that is an aggregator figure [C], it predates the July RFIs, and it is not on the record. Amentum's $77M GSA logistics award for Japan (INDOPACOM) was read in the company's 17 June 2026 release [A]. "GSCM" (Global Supply Chain Management) appears only as Amentum's internal organisation name in job postings [C]. It is not a reporting segment, and no GSCM revenue is disclosed. Not established: the industry's total size beyond these vehicles, the margin on any single task order, the ownership of ADS and Noble, and anything about Canadian defence logistics contracting (DND / PSPC), which was not researched. The Statistics Canada and Census counts cover all of management consulting. The primes in this record are mostly not coded to 54161, and the Army codes LOGCAP VI under 561210. The cut factor is analyst judgment.
Software serving this industry
Vertical software markets filed along the same branch of NAICS — who sells to these businesses, and who an entrant would have to displace.
No vertical software market has been recorded along this branch yet. The base industry report says what the subsector typically runs on.